Divided We Fail

 

Divided We Fail

Election Reveals Two Minneapolises

November 3 was election eve. Minneapolis was wrapping up one of its most expensive and divisive campaign seasons in recent history. The city was on the cusp of possibly electing its first male Black mayor as Omar Fateh, DeWayne Davis and Jazz Hampton had all run credible campaigns.

Many Southsiders were hoping for change in the leadership at city hall following sometimes intense and offensive campaigning, that included accusations of racism and xenophobia.

The next day, however, a majority of voters chose the incumbent, Jacob Frey, to continue as the city’s 38^th White male mayor, out of the 40 mayors in the city’s history.  

Minneapolis voters picked the candidate who chose not to make racial justice a top priority. As a council member, he voted to cut funding from the racial equity division. When he was mayor, city staff issued statements outlining a “toxic, anti-Black work culture” under his leadership as mayor. “City leaders,” they wrote, “claim to uphold values of racial equity and justice and acknowledged racism as a public health crisis. However, these claims have failed to result in tangible actions...”   He has also failed to deliver on the promised city truth and reconciliation process.

The theme of a polarized city government was prominent this year and we saw it reflected in unprecedented spending by special interest Independent Expenditure Political Committees (IEPC) that divided city elected officials into two distinct sides, one said to be with the mayor and one against.

The election results revealed divisions in voters as well.     

The south, west and downtown wards brought in the most voters. Ward 13 had the area's highest voter turnout of 69% of registered voters with 16,918 people voting. Ward 12 had the city’s highest number of voters this year with 17,168 voters. These were followed by ward 11 with 13,486, Ward 3, with 12,869; and, Ward 7, 12,860. These 5 wards brought in over 48 % of the votes, while only having 38% of the city’s population.

This benefitted Frey.  In Ward 13 alone, Frey received 10,451 first-choice votes to 2,295 for Jazz Hampton, 2,080 for Omar Fateh, and 1,860 for DeWayne Davis. Frey also won large margins in Wards 3, 7, 11 and 12. In 3, he got 5,536 to Fateh’s 3,851; in 7, he won 7,198 votes compared to Fateh’s 3,317. Frey won every precinct in both wards 11 and 12 with 7,005 first-choice votes to Fateh’s 2,577 in 11, and 6,104 to Fateh’s 4,131 in 12.

But not all Southside wards went for Frey. 

Omar Fateh had the most first-choice votes in the lower voter-turnout Wards 2, 6, 8 and 9. In Ward 2 he won seven of the nine precincts and came in first with 2,536 votes to Frey’s 1,895. Davis had 924 first choice votes and Hampton had 414.  Davis and Hampton came in third and fourth respectively in each of the 6 southside wards, 2, 6, 8, 9, 11 and 12.

Fateh won Ward 6 with 4,855 first-choice votes to Frey’s 1,805, where Frey only won in one precinct. In Ward 8, Fateh had 4,295 first-choice votes to Frey’s 3,922.  In Ward 9 Fateh won every precinct for a total of 3,557 votes to Frey’s 2,099.

Tony Damiano, a research associate at the Center for Urban and Regional Affairs at the University of Minnesota, recently shared his analysis of how different neighborhoods voted for mayor using precinct level voting results, census data, and the 2019–2023 5-Year American Community Survey results.

About “obvious trends” he noted that, with few exceptions, “Frey found his base of support in higher-income, highly educated, high-turnout precincts with lots of homeowners, while Fateh was strongest in working-class precincts in central parts of the city with a more racially diverse population, many renters, and lower incomes.”

“My findings consistently show,” he concluded, “that higher socio-economic status precincts (meaning those with higher incomes, whiter populations, more homeowners, and higher levels of education) supported incumbent Mayor Frey at higher rates than Omar Fateh. While lower-income, less White, and high-renter precincts were much more likely to support Fateh. The strongest relationship that I found was between a precinct’s estimated median household income and Frey’s vote share.”

We don’t know why individuals make voting decisions, what unconscious biases might be at play as well as what information they use and what information they may not even know about. It appears, however, that race and class played a role.    

Money also appears to have played a large and potentially dangerous role in this election thanks to the Supreme Courts Citizen’s United decision that lifted limits on contributions and expenditures of IEPCs. Frey’s campaign was not only the top campaign spender, with over $1 million dollars in expenditures, he also had the backing of at least three IEPCs that, as of the Oct, reported pouring over $1.1 million into the elections. The biggest IEPC spender was All of Minneapolis, that spent $286,578 for Frey and $130,913 against Fateh.

Still, there are some hopeful results that suggest that race and money may not dominate voter decision making in every race.

Even on the southside, as Ward 11 went for Frey for mayor, they also likely elected Jamison Whiting, a Black man, to be their council member.  In Ward 12, where Frey did so well, Aurin Chowdhury was re-elected with over 60% of the vote despite being opposed by all 3 of the pro-Frey IEPCs.  

In the mostly Southwest Park District 4, Jason Garcia, who has prioritized, among other things, implementing the city’s Indigenous Action Plan, was elected. 

In Wards 10 and 2, the IEPCs who recruited and spent heavily on pro-Frey candidates, to defeat incumbents, Aisha Chughtai and Robin Wonsley, were unsuccessful.   

And in Southside’s largest Park District, 5, Kay Carvajal Moran was elected over incumbent Stephani Musich, even as much of the area supported Frey. “It’s a big deal that Kay Carvajal Moran, who is 24 years of age, won her race in District 5,” wrote Jason Chavez after the election. “She challenged the status quo and beat the sitting Vice-President of the Park Board.”

Still, especially when we look at the at-large citywide results, the differences are real. It appears that our elected city government officials may be divided, at least in part, because we are.

If we want a less polarized and more collaborative city government, maybe we should start by working to be more cooperative and less divided ourselves.

Can we start learning from our diversity, instead of seeing it as a threat? Understanding and respecting our diversity may actually be the best path to more quickly and effectively implementing solutions to our most pressing problems.

How often do we cross community lines and listen to each other? How many times do we seek out new people from across the census tracks, from another culture, background, economic status or place of worship? How often do we engage in facilitated conversations between people from different neighborhoods to learn about life in the city for them.  

The next 4 years give us time to better understand each other. To convince and win over people who may not agree with us now, to be open to being won over by them and to seek a middle ground.

It will also give our media, our institutions and community organizations time to work harder to help us develop a shared, verifiable, accurate, and honest understanding of our historic and current reality as a city, and how we have been, and still are, impacted by past and current practices. 

To have a city government that works well for everyone, understanding those who experience it differently than we do could be essential.

If our city government won’t help us craft a formal truth and reconciliation process, can we do it on our own? If we can’t do it as a city, let’s start as individuals.